Week 5 preview with Mark Lawrenson

Blackburn v Arsenal (1245 BST)
Arsenal got a great result in Dortmund in the Champions League on Tuesday, despite conceding a late equaliser, but defensively they were all over the place for the first half-hour.
Gunners boss Arsene Wenger says we should know in a couple of months what sort of team they have got and they are clearly still trying to find their feet, and finding the best way to get the best out of new players like Mikel Arteta and Yossi Benayoun.
Blackburn sat with two banks of four players against Fulham at Craven Cottage on Sunday and pinched a point, but I think they have to be more ambitious here.
If I were Blackburn boss Steve Kean, I would be thinking that Arsenal have got three or four new players so get amongst them, and get in their faces.
Rovers have not won a point at Ewood Park so far this season, and Saturday would be a good time to start. They need to give their fans a lift.
Prediction: 1-1

Aston Villa v Newcastle
The owners of both these clubs, Randy Lerner and Mike Ashley, have clearly decided to stop paying out mad money for players and balance the books instead.
I think they have both realised that if they spent £50m it wouldn't bring them success, and they might not get much more than they have already got.
Both sides have made good starts to the season though, even if Villa were a little fortunate to get a point out of Everton. Boss Alex McLeish is a great man-manager and will get the best out of the squad he has got - his players will certainly want to play for him.
Newcastle are unbeaten but the big issue for them is that they don't really look like scoring goals, which is an issue their fans know all about.
Prediction: 2-0

Bolton v Norwich
Norwich were a bit unlucky with some of the decisions that went against them in their home defeat by West Brom on Sunday, but I think the Baggies had a little bit too much nous for them anyway.
Bolton were taken apart by Manchester United in their last game but that is going to happen to a few teams this season and they just need to forget about that defeat as quickly as possible.
Wanderers are usually pretty good at getting back on the rails after suffering a setback, and this is probably a good time for them to be playing Norwich.
Prediction: 2-1

Everton v Wigan
Wigan are not great on the road and they have not had a fantastic week, getting thumped by Manchester City then being beaten in the Carling Cup by Crystal Palace.
Everton might be licking their wounds a bit too, because they played really well against Aston Villa and should have won that game rather than just having to settle for a point.
One of the big pluses for me from that game was seeing their new signing Royston Drenthe for the first time. He is lightning quick and, if he can stay fit, looks like he could be another find by Toffees boss David Moyes.
Prediction: 2-0

Swansea v West Brom
Swansea still haven't scored in the Premier League, which tells its own story. They are creating enough chances but their new striker Danny Graham looks like he needs a goal and the whole team do too, clearly.
West Brom, especially now they have got Peter Odemwingie back, look very dangerous up front. Their boss Roy Hodgson will have them playing on the counter-attack and the pace of Odemwingie and Shane Long will be a real handful for the Swans defence.
The Baggies had lost their first three Premier League games of the season before beating Norwich at the weekend, but it was never going to be panic-stations for them. Hodgson is far too shrewd for that.
Prediction: 1-1

Wolverhampton v QPR
I was impressed by QPR in their draw with Newcastle on Monday night. I'm still not totally sure about Rangers defensively but they have made lots of new signings so it is going to take time for them all to bed in.
There wasn't a great deal of difference between Wolves and Tottenham last Saturday until Spurs scored with about 20 minutes to go, but Mick McCarthy need to get back on their horse quickly if they are going to continue their bright start to the season.
I remember Wolves steaming into Joey Barton last time he came to Molineux with Newcastle in August last year. Four of their players were booked for tackles on him, and I am sure he will get another warm welcome this time as well.
Prediction: 2-1
SUNDAY

Tottenham v Liverpool (1330 BST)
I don't blame Tottenham boss Harry Redknapp for fielding a virtual reserve team against PAOK Salonika in the Europa League on Thursday. This game was always going to be his main focus.
If Spurs had not beaten Wolves last week, then Redknapp might be under a bit of pressure - the Premier League has to be his priority at the moment.
Besides, Tottenham could lose a couple of European games and still get out of their group. It means they can find out one or two things about their younger players too.
Liverpool complained about some of the decisions which went against them in their defeat by Stoke last weekend, but they just need to get on with it now.
I cannot see Reds boss Kenny Dalglish trying to take Tottenham on too much in this game. I think they will go there trying not to get beat.
Prediction: 1-1

Fulham v Man City
Wednesday's draw with Napoli was a difficult welcome to the Champions League for Manchester City, but it was not a bad result in the end.
Returning to Premier League action after their European exploits is something else City need to get used to and they will be hoping for a repeat of their last visit to Craven Cottage, when they won 4-1 and Yaya Toure caused the home side massive problems.
The strength of City's squad should mean they are fine and I am backing them to see off Fulham easily enough again.
Fulham looked short of ideas in their draw with Blackburn last week despite having a lot of possession, and they did not look like scoring.
Their manager Martin Jol needs a win, so what he doesn't need is to be playing City at home.
Prediction: 0-2

Sunderland v Stoke
The situation with Asamoah Gyan leaving Sunderland for Al Ain in the United Arab Emirates last weekend was very strange and sums up the modern footballer in some ways.
The standard of football over there is very low so Gyan could not have done much more to advertise himself as a money-grabber. Steve Bruce was no doubt tearing his hair out over the whole thing.
It does leave the Black Cats looking a bit short of goals, and Bruce is already under a bit of pressure, but I can see them getting their first win of the season here.
Stoke are just getting used to the whole Thursday-Sunday thing of playing in the Europa League and, although you can bank on them at the Britannia, they are not always the same force away from home.
Prediction: 2-1

Man Utd v Chelsea (1600 BST)
I like the look of Chelsea boss Andre Villas-Boas. I like his demeanour and his freshness, and I think his players will too. He looks an easy manager to deal with.
People are saying this is United's first test of the season after their superb start but it is a really big test for Villas-Boas too.
It will be fascinating to see how he sets up his team at Old Trafford because we will find out his mindset - will he be happy with a point, or look to turn them over?
He has left a couple of players like John Terry and Frank Lampard out of their midweek Champions League win over Bayer Leverkusen because he knows his team have to be ready for this game.
United just seem able to find their opponents' weakest link at the moment and the way they look when they come forward means they will be too much for most teams.
Villas-Boas is slowly but surely turning Chelsea into his team, but it might take him a while and I cannot see Chelsea ending United's 100% winning start to the season.
Prediction: 2-1



Mark Lawrenson.

Week 4 Predictions with Mark Lawrenson

Arsenal v Swansea

The interesting thing about Arsenal right now, because of the frantic end to the transfer window that went on there - which in itself made a mockery of their summer transfer dealings to that point if you ask me - is no-one quite knows how the team is going to set up this weekend.

I think Mikel Arteta is a good signing for them, and Per Mertesacker will be fine, but while we can all guess at how they will settle down, we just don't know.

For a man previously reluctant to spend much at all, Wenger suddenly went out in a panic in the last few days of the transfer window and it will be interesting to see if his gamble works out.

Either way, though, I think the Gunners will have too much for a Swansea side who have also made a couple of acquisitions.

There's no problem with the way Brendan Rodgers' side play football, but Swansea's problem this season will be getting goals. It's a massive issue for them.

In Scott Sinclair, Nathan Dyer, Wayne Routledge and Danny Graham they have plenty of pace and talent up front, but they're realising that they won't get too many chances at this level and that it's imperative you take what comes your way. The other problem as well is that teams are going to find they can cut them up.

As long as they keep learning as they go, though, they'll have a chance of staying in the league.

Prediction: 2-0

Everton v Aston Villa

These are two sides in a similar state of flux at the minute.

Mikel Arteta's sale was a good one from Everton's point of view; he didn't want to be there and in selling him and a couple of others, the club probably cut their debt by a quarter, which is important.

And it also allowed David Moyes to bring a couple in, too. We know all about Royston Drenthe and if Moyes can get him working we know he has ability, no question. As for the centre forward they've bought whose name I can't pronounce [Denis Stracqualursi] - I don't expect he will struggle with the physicality of the Premier League at all given he has come from the tough South American leagues - it's just about whether he has the talent.

Aston Villa, like Everton, are cutting their cloth, looking to lower the wage bill and bring money in and so on.

But they, like the Toffees, still have good players are the club and that's important.

Still, with home advantage on Saturday and on the back of a morale-boosting win at Blackburn last time out, I'm tipping Everton here.

Prediction: 2-1

Man City v Wigan

Manchester City have been nothing short of outstanding since the first day of the season.

Their biggest problem this weekend will be that with so many top quality players almost their entire squad will have been away on international duty and so could be coming back with all sorts of knocks and niggles.

Saying that, manager Roberto Mancini has such a magnificent squad they will be strong whichever team they put out so they'll have no problems against Wigan.

Wigan have made a decent start - but they have played the three teams that have come up, two of them at home, so their points tally and league position is a little bit flattering in my opinion. In fact, I would be slightly worried as a Wigan fan that they didn't win all those games.

This is the Latics' first real test of the season, for sure, and I don't see them passing it.

Prediction: 3-0

Stoke v Liverpool

Both of these teams have spent a bit this summer, and full credit to Stoke chairman Peter Coates, especially - he's backed [manager] Tony Pulis to the hilt in the transfer window and they've made a real improvement.

They have added a bit of strength, a bit of pace, Wilson Palacios is a good signing and Peter Crouch, too, is a real handful. It won't change the way they play but their squad is looking more than decent now.

As for Liverpool, the big thing for them is that they can change from the bench now. They have real quality in the team but now, if it's not working, they can put somebody different on and mix it up, which is vital.

Liverpool are going to be challenging for fourth, no question, because they have cover and quality in every position. I think they're going to kick on.

Saying that, not many teams go to Stoke and win so I'm going for a draw here, which wouldn't be a bad result for either side I don't think.

Prediction: 1-1

Sunderland v Chelsea

Sunderland will be fine this season. I know plenty of people are pointing to their form at the back end of last season and the start of this wondering if there are problems there, but these things will take time to settle in.

I'm very interested to see how Nicklas Bendtner, on a season-long loan from Arsenal, fares.

He has a very high opinion of himself, scored a couple in midweek for Denmark which will help his confidence, and he'll be one of those this season that either sinks or swims. Maybe regular games will equal regular goals for Bendtner, which in turn may equal growing up a little bit as well. That might be the key for both him and Sunderland.

The manager Steve Bruce has the right chairman in Niall Quinn, a real football man, so he'll be just fine. The time to sit down and review for Sunderland - and for all teams - is 10 games in.

Chelsea, too, are a bit of a work in progress. They will be there or thereabouts this season, but I just feel new boss Andre Villas-Boas is trying to change their style a little.

Where before Chelsea could be a little laborious in their approach play, I think Villas-Boas is trying to instill a bit of urgency and a bit of pace about their play, which is all designed to fit around Fernando Torres. He needs early balls alongside the centre-backs and the full-backs, because the slower the build-up the less effective Torres is. And if you spend £50m on a player you have to build the team around them don't you?

With both teams settling in a touch, I'll go for a draw in this one.

Prediction: 1-1

Wolverhampton v Tottenham

Wolves have made a very good start to the season - I've liked what I've seen of them so far.

But Tottenham, they have had a hell of a start haven't they? Their first game was cancelled, they got well beaten by Manchester United and were then taken apart by Manchester City last time out. The confidence in the camp can't be great.

I'm just looking at Tottenham and I think they're groaning a little bit. It's not been a good start to the season and I really don't think Harry [Redknapp] got what he wanted from the transfer window at all. I just wonder if there's a little chink in his relationship with the chairman.

Looking from the outside in you think if Tottenham had have sold Luka Modric for £40m, Harry could have gone out and bought three players - and Harry would have loved that, freshening the dressing room up nicely.

All doesn't seem well with the Londoners right now, so I'll go with another win for Wolves.

Prediction: 2-1

Bolton v Man Utd (1730 BST)

Bolton have gone out and got David Ngog from Liverpool - and for me he's a bit like Nicklas Bendtner at Sunderland in that you suspect he might just blossom away from a top club, with regular football.

A lot of the time at Liverpool he played up front on his own as a replacement for Fernando Torres and he struggled - so he might just benefit from playing alongside someone, a Kevin Davies in this case. It might be just the thing to bring him on - which is just the thing I'm sure that Owen Coyle is banking on.

And Ngog does score. He scores scruffy goals - which is absolutely fine. He has got that in him.

Saying all that, this is Manchester United. Let's be honest, it wasn't a bad result for them last time out - they'd have taken an 8-2 win over Arsenal before the game, I reckon. Only the shabbiness of Arsenal took a bit of the shine out of what was a fabulous performance, including some cracking goals.

Already I think the United players will have returned from international duty, got their heads back in Saturday's game, and I see them coming out with a win.

Prediction: 1-2

SUNDAY

Norwich v West Brom (1330)

Already this season you can tell Norwich are going to be neat and tidy this season - and they had a spell last week against Chelsea when they were very impressive, pushing the Blues right on to the back foot for a period.

The good thing also is that they have in Grant Holt a proper nuisance of a striker, a man who puts himself about and who is full of running, working for the team. He occupies people.

This is a real big game for Norwich, though, because they will want a win under their belt as soon as possible to feel like they belong in the top flight.

They face a West Brom side that, in terms of points, has made a very poor start to the season. But performance-wise the Baggies have done well and they could easily have got themselves three or four points so far had things gone differently. I wouldn't panic at all if I were them.

Having said that, Norwich will look at this as a game they can win and I'll think they'll just about scrape it.

Prediction: 2-1

Fulham v Blackburn (1600)

Blackburn did some dealings in the transfer window and I actually think they did OK. Yakubu has come in and I've heard good things about Simon Vukcevic as well. Scott Dann, too, is a fine signing.

It's all about how those players settle in now for Blackburn.

Rovers travel to Craven Cottage this weekend, though, and I nearly always fancy Fulham at home against anyone outside of the top four in all honesty so I'll go for them.

Fulham are a good side, very strong at home, and new striker Bryan Ruiz will give them an added dimension I'm sure.

Home win.

Prediction: 2-0

MONDAY

QPR v Newcastle (2000)

You can see what QPR went for in the summer - they went out and brought in players with Premier League experience.

Now it comes down to whether [manager] Neil Warnock has got the mix right, whether the new boys and the old boys can gel. What he has definitely got is numbers - and he doesn't have to bother about any off the field problems, meaning he can just focus on the first team, which must be a big fillip.

As for Newcastle, I've been told that they were seriously in for a striker this summer, that they made some serious offers that just never came to fruition. I'm sure that will be addressed in January, but until then they are a bit short up front and I can understand fans' frustrations that they got £35m in for Andy Carroll in January and haven't yet reinvested it.

The Magpies are a bit similar to Everton, Aston Villa et al, though, in that to finish in the top six they'd need to spend £100m or more. I know Mike Ashley has taken a lot of stick - and I've given him loads of it - but he's not going to spend that and I make him right. So if you're not going to do that, you need to make sure you're in decent enough shape to be comfortable, which Newcastle are.

They've also enjoyed a good start to the season so I see Newcastle being just fine this season. Even though I think they'll lose at Loftus Road on Monday.

The Big Divide in La Liga

Every time they say goodbye, La Liga dies a little. Now Juan Mata has signed for Chelsea from Valencia, just as Sergio Aguero signed for Manchester City from Atlético Madrid. For fans of City and Chelsea, the transfers are fantastically exciting, two great additions to two teams aspiring to win the Premier League. For the Spanish league, they are frightening. Despite the injection of around 75 million euros, the transfers are confirmation of a worrisome trend.

In truth, Aguero wanted to go to Real Madrid. In the end, he signed for City. Mata had hoped for the chance to join Barcelona. He signed for Chelsea. Together their moves are symbolic of an inescapable reality: Spain's best players now aspire to join one of the big two or leave the country altogether. When they do, the gap widens in Spain and the opportunity to close it fades. The super strong get stronger, while the others cannot compete. La Liga is a two-horse race but not because the rest are a bunch of donkeys. And yet bit by bit they get weakened, the inequality becomes more entrenched.

It has always been this way, and not just in Spain. It's only natural: big fish eats little fish. The standout players at other clubs have long since gravitated to Madrid or Barcelona and it would be wise not to overreact; departures do not necessarily signal impending doom.

Valencia sold their best two players last summer and returned to the Champions League positions, rebuilding cleverly. They have history too: When they won the league in 2003, it was after selling Gaizka Mendieta, Claudio López and Gerard. They constructed a fantastically competitive squad last summer and have moved astutely this year, signing Parejo, Piatti and Canales.

Julio Baptista left Sevilla for Real Madrid in 2005, having scored 50 goals in the previous two seasons. The following season, with the Beast no longer on their team, Sevilla won the UEFA Cup. The year after they won another UEFA Cup, the Copa del Rey, and the European Super Cup, and went into the final day of the season with a chance of winning the league. Fernando Torres walked out of Atlético Madrid in 2007. He had always refused to join Madrid and Barcelona wasn't interested so he went to Liverpool. The following season, Atlético returned to the Champions League for the first time in 11 years.

None of that means the problem is not real, though. Though they were able to finish third last season, Valencia ended 21 points behind second-place Real Madrid. And when Atlético finally returned to the Champions League in 2008, they were led by Sergio Aguero. For the last three or four years Aguero could make a convincing case to be the best player in Spain, not at Madrid or Barcelona. So, inevitably, he tried to go to Madrid. He was, though, at the wrong club: Atlético's visceral refusal to sell to their rivals forced him to go abroad.

He was hardly going to stay. Why would the best players stay? How could they? A tipping point has been reached and players know that: Unless they are at one of the big two, they cannot seriously expect to compete for trophies. And, unlike before, the social, political historical and economic differences -- dealt with in parts I, II and III -- mean that it is hard to see that situation ever changing. Money has become a greater determinant than ever. A combined league table from the last three seasons reads: Barcelona 282 points; Madrid 266; Valencia 204; Sevilla 191; Villarreal 183; Atlético 172.

Madrid and Barcelona, whose stranglehold on the league and other clubs is absolute, have no intention of redistributing talent, wealth or opportunity. There is no concept of the league as the product; the LFP is a loose, disparate collection of clubs with wildly different interests, each looking out for their own in which two clubs beat the rest every time.

Look at that three-year league table again: Each of the 'other' four has lost their best players in the last three years. Their destination: The big two or a different country, a different league. Aguero is just another example. Dani Alves left Sevilla for Barcelona. Valencia has lost David Silva, David Villa (to Barcelona) and, now, Juan Mata. Atlético has lost Aguero and Forlán is about to go too (although the signing of Falcao is tremendously exciting). Villarreal has just lost Santi Cazorla. Last season's outstanding performer beyond the big two was striker Giuseppe Rossi (he wanted a move to Barcelona but, in the end, wasn't able to get it).

Over the last five years, if you had to compile a list of the five best players in Spain outside Real Madrid and Barcelona, it would almost certainly read: David Villa, David Silva, Sergio Aguero, Dani Alves and Diego Forlán. Only Forlán is where he was -- and not for much longer. It goes deeper too. When Sergio Canales burst onto the scene with Racing Santander, it was electrifying. Here was a genuinely special player, destined for great things. Within a year, Madrid had swept him up. A year after that, having had little genuine use for him, they tossed him out on loan -- so long as he does not play against them.

Mata's departure means that every one of Valencia's World Cup winners have gone. When Spain won the 2008 European Championships, Valencia had four players in the squad, Villarreal three, Barcelona three and Real Madrid two. Two years later, when Spain won the World Cup, that list had changed, largely because of signings. It read: Barcelona seven, Real Madrid five, Valencia two, Villarreal one. The two Valencia players, Villa and Silva, had completed moves before the tournament was even finished.

In 2010-2011, the soccer statisticians Opta put together an objective stats-based team of the season. Of the outfield players, only Juan Mata (Valencia) and Santi Cazorla (Villarreal) did not play for Madrid and Barcelona. Now, they have both left. Cazorla, who would have been Villarreal's second player in South Africa but for injury, has moved for possibly £19 million ($31M) -- a move that helps to explain Villarreal's ability to resist bids for Rossi and keep him at the Madrigal. For now.

There was interest from England -- Liverpool and Chelsea both contemplated moves -- but the truth is neither Barcelona nor Madrid wanted Cazorla. There is a glimmer of hope, a shout of ambition, about his signing. He has moved to Málaga but he hasn't moved on from Spain.

Backed by huge investment, Málaga is a club that can keep players in Spain -- one that, in the long term, may be able to alter the landscape a little, shoving a spoke or two in the wheels of the big two. This summer they have, if in a minor way, bucked the trend. Many would reject it, but in signing Cazorla, there was a hint of something else: a hint that Málaga isn't just doing it for themselves, but for everyone else too. For La Liga.

SID LOWE